Oscar Predictions 2014

Oscar Predictions 2014



It’s that time again!

In keeping with my annual tradition, here are my predictions for who will take home Academy Awards in major categories, who should win, and who would’ve been a serious contender had they been nominated. I’m also throwing in a few caveats for possible upsets.  Note: I saw all the movies listed here, but Wolf of Wall Street.  Sorry, Martin Scorsese.

Best Picture
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Should win: American Hustle
Coulda-been: Prisoners or Fruitvale Station
Caveat: I’ve been suspecting that 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, the two presumed frontrunners, might split their votes, leaving space for another movie to sneak in. I think that movie might be American Hustle.


Best Director
American Hustle (David O. Russell)
Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón)
Nebraska (Alexander Payne)
12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

Will win: Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity)
Should win: Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Coulda-been: Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips) or Ryan Coogler (Fruitvale Station)


Best Actress in a Leading Role
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

Will win: Cate Blanchett
Should win: Cate Blanchett (with a slight lean toward Amy Adams)
Coulda-been: Amy Seimetz (Upstream Color)


Best Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Will win: Matthew McConaughey
Should win: Chiwetel Ejiofor
Coulda-been: Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station)
Caveat: Here’s where things get dicey. Right now, Mack-con-uh-hee is the presumed frontrunner. But lately, Leonardo DiCaprio’s campaign has been picking up steam; he’s hugely popular, has been nominated in the past, and some in the Academy might think he’s overdue for reward. Plus, awards guru Tom O’Neill over at GoldDerby is the only pundit on his site who has DiCaprio as the winner, and his track record is pretty good. This would be the biggest upset of the night.


Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)

Will win: Lupita Nyong’o
Should win: Lupita Nyong’o
Coulda-been: Mickey Sumner (Frances Ha)


Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Will win: Jared Leto
Should win: Jared Leto (with a slight lean toward Abdi or Fassbender)
Coulda-been: Tye Sheridan (Mud)


Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke)
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)

Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Should win: 12 Years a Slave
Coulda-been: (August: Osage County)


Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
Her (Spike Jonze)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)

Will win: American Hustle
Should win: American Hustle
Coulda-been: Jeff Nichols (Mud)